This is all taken into account in big win games basketball the models, and as they suggest, even after the tightening of the polls, its clear that Hillary Clinton is still the clear favorite heading into Election Day.
By 9:30.m., the odds had plummeted to dead even at about 50 percent for each candidate.
As we noted at the time, the old saying that people vote their pocketbooks is more accurate than the average political analyst thinks.
They also predict that Hillary Clinton will win 317 Electoral College votes, whereas Trump will win 164.
And if Hillary Clinton wins Florida, she has 469 ways to win from there, but Donald Trump only has 39.The Upshots model is also unique in that it outlines every single possible way that Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump could be elected president, and this helps illustrate how narrow Trumps path is compared to that of his opponent.Dow futures dropped more than 700 points,.S.On October 30th, DailyKos had Hillary Clintons chances of victory at 96 percent, whereas theyre now at 87 percent.It comes down to the battleground states, and its all about reaching 270 Electoral College points rather than actually winning the most votes.While Wall Street typically worries about how politics might affect the market, presidential candidates are far more concerned about how the stock market might affect their political outcomes.Nate Silvers, fiveThirtyEight, which started the evening giving Clinton a 71 percent chance to win, had fallen to 37 percent.Another prominent election forecaster is, the New York Times The Upshot, and theyre much more certain of a Hillary Clinton victory than FiveThirtyEight.DailyKos election forecast, which currently gives Trump a 13 percent chance of winning the election.But after the three debates and after over a dozen women came forward to accuse Trump of sexual assault, his odds started to plummet, going down to just nine percent on October 22nd. .
We were referring to a market-based indicator which had a near flawless.4 accuracy track record.
Even in Pennsylvania, Trumps odds of victory have risen from five percent to 11 percent.
Here is why this is important: historically, the market performance in the three months leading up to a Presidential Election has displayed an uncanny ability to forecast who will win the White House the incumbent party or the challenger.
Donald Trump, and by 11:00, the, times was predicting a Trump win at over 95 percent.
But more importantly, this is how the market has performed in the past 3 months: The chart above, which shows that the S P has fallen some.5 over the critical three month period, suggests that based on this indicator, Trump has a roughly.As we further explained at the start of the year, "this relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election.Just a few weeks ago, Trump was at his lowest point ever in The Upshots forecast, having just a seven percent chance of victory on October 22nd.The Upshot previously forecast that Trump had a 20 percent chance of winning Florida, but that has now jumped to 30 percent.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Trump.5 percent chance of winning the election.So even though Donald Trump is close to Clinton in the polls, the fact is that winning the election is much more cumbersome for him than it is for Clinton when you look at the Electoral College map.FiveThirtyEight, the data analysis website run by Nate Silver.As Ohio and North Carolina were called for Trump, and the race unexpectedly tightened in Michigan and Wisconsin, the whole world began biting its nails and bracing for the very real possibility of Trump in the White House.Markets were quick to react.